Cons versus cons. A realistic response to difficult situations.
“Refugee flows, low birth rates and left-behind regions persist because there is no answer, not because politicians are useless” (Financial Times, 2024) Leading economists Mike Spence and Mohamed El-Erian described the feeling of a “complicated and disorienting environment” (McKinsey, 2024).
In the era of the unfixable problem, there's widespread anger, denial and inaction.
By accepting and comparing negative scenarios realistically, the cons versus cons approach says “which scenario do you believe your [ self / team / business / community / nation ] can best live with?” This reminds us that major problems take time to resolve. It is so simple, everyone can do it, no training required. Only courage.
As individuals, life throws us hand grenades. The only response is to minimise injury, diving on the hand grenade so to speak, to survive and then try to recover as best possible.
What if we consider massive unfixable problems in a more relatable way? Can this help us to resolve the least bad outcome, survive, reconnect and recover? - cons versus cons is one such technique. Let’s try to put this in context of two scenarios where there’s a lot of anger and little open dialogue.
Britain and the EU married in 1973. Britain decided to file for divorce after 47 years and a lot of bickering, citing that the EU was an overbearing, controlling partner that kept talking down to them. The EU felt that Britain was being childish, petty and stuck in the past. Subsequently, both have struggled to come to terms with what has happened.
America asked the world to marry its ruggedly individual idea for a global marketplace. For its problems, 1 billion people were lifted out of poverty through active participation in that marriage. 79 years later, America is seeking a separation on grounds that the world betrayed its trust and kept stealing from its wallet. It is setting aggressive boundaries.
After a cumulative 126 years of union, citizens believing that benefits will materialise in years rather than decades exist in a realm of magical thinking that would make Merlin proud. For people struggling to make ends meet, there is no time to think ahead even if the outcome turns out to be worse. Roll the dice. Except maybe there is a simple, universal approach.
Conducting a pros and cons assessment is a business basic, dating back to 1772 and Benjamin Franklin. Due to human negativity bias a lot of the time the cons list is disproportionately long. A SWOT analysis usually looks like a sWoT. Leaders see this as a reason to avoid such frameworks as overly pessimistic and that people should just stop being so negative.
On the contrary, when faced with seemingly unfixable negative scenarios - in life, on a project, or in society - spending time analysing and reflecting on the negative is an essential part of the process, even when it feels unbearable.
Psychologist and author Susan Pease Gadoua, wrote a list of don’ts for divorce that will make recovery slower, more painful, with deeper, uglier scars. Many seem relevant prescient, thinking of recent upheavals like Brexit.
Pretend you're fine or try to hold it all together
Stick your head in the sand and hope it will go away
Don't ask for help and try to do it all alone
Don't talk about your grief / feelings
Count on others to tell you what you need (don't be in your own power)
Be upset with yourself for "still" feeling bad, sad, scared, or angry
Try to push your "negative emotions" away for better feeling emotions
Don't accept your new reality and move on
Don't trust that things will work out
Be a perfectionist and think you mustn't make any errors
Much of the problem is in dialogue, or the lack of it. In addition to Susan Pease Gadoua, Esther Perel, Alain de Botton and The School Of Life are brilliant references to develop problem-solving and communications skills.
Sometimes massive problems need a more human, relatable solution. It won’t be ideal, but you are more likely to walk away from it and grow, knowing things will get better, eventually.